Market on June 11: Oil drops around a 7-week high, gold decreases slightly.
The US-China trade negotiations continue to be the focal point of attention in the global commodities market on June 10, 2025. By the end of the trading session, oil slightly decreased around its highest level in 7 weeks, while the prices of gold, copper, and steel also saw a slight decline. The price of Robusta coffee dropped due to increased supply from the harvest in Brazil and Indonesia.
S&P 500 rose for three consecutive sessions thanks to hopes for US-China trade negotiations.
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday (June 10th), as investors hoped for a positive solution in the trade discussions between the U.S. and China.
At the end of the trading session on June 10, the Dow Jones index rose by 105.11 points (equivalent to 0.25%) to 42,866.87 points. The S&P 500 index increased by 0.55% to 6,038.81 points, while the Nasdaq Composite index advanced by 0.63% to 19,714.99 points. This marks the third consecutive increase for both of these indices.
The trade negotiations between the US and China in London have entered their second day with positive signals. US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick expressed hope to conclude by the evening of June 10, but it may be extended to June 11 if necessary. Both parties are working towards an agreement to reduce tariffs. The US stock market rose due to expectations of progress in negotiations, strong corporate earnings, and a rebound in technology stocks, particularly in the AI sector. However, concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs still remain.
Oil eased around a 7-week high as the market awaited news from the US-China negotiations.
Oil prices edged down around their highest level in 7 weeks as the market monitored the developments of trade negotiations between the US and China – the two largest economies in the world. Brent fell by 0.3% to $66.87 per barrel, while WTI dropped by 0.5% to $64.98 per barrel. A day earlier, oil prices had reached their highest level since April.
The US-China trade negotiations entered their second day in London, amid ongoing concerns about tariffs weighing on market sentiment. The World Bank has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3% (from 2.7%) due to high tariffs and economic uncertainty.
Regarding oil supply, Saudi Aramco will reduce exports to China to 47 million barrels in July. Although OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day, actual supply may still be constrained due to previous cuts. The US and Iran have not made progress in nuclear negotiations, while the EU is preparing the 18th package of sanctions targeting oil and the Russian defense industry - the world's second-largest oil producer in 2024.
In the U.S., crude oil inventories are forecasted to decrease by 2 million barrels in the week ending June 6 - the third consecutive weekly decline, contrasting with an average increase of 2.8 million barrels over the past five years.
Gold prices dipped slightly as the market watches the US-China negotiations.
Gold prices fell slightly as investors await the results of the U.S.-China trade negotiations, which could ease global tensions and weaken demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,324.55 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3% to $3,343.40 per ounce.
The USD index increased by 0.2%, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Traders believe that positive expectations from US-China negotiations, along with upcoming US inflation data, are putting pressure on gold prices. Some investors are waiting for prices to adjust around the 3,100 USD/ounce mark.
In addition, silver fell by 0.5% to $36.53 an ounce, platinum decreased by 0.5% to $1,213.08 after reaching its highest level since May 2021, while palladium dropped by 1.2% to $1,061.85. Platinum prices were supported by supply concerns and speculative buying, while palladium decreased due to weaker demand.
The exchange rate has dropped due to concerns about trade negotiations and weak demand.
Copper prices fell 0.4% to $9,757.50 per ton due to cautious investor sentiment ahead of unclear results from the US-China negotiations, amid concerns that a prolonged trade war will impact growth and demand for metals.
The amount of copper in stock on the LME continues to decrease by 2,000 tons, down to 120,400 tons – halving in three months, indicating a tight supply. However, US copper futures prices fell by 0.3% to $4.91 per pound. The price gap between US copper and LME copper reached $1,067 per ton, due to expectations that the US will impose tariffs on imported copper.
In China, zinc prices on the Shanghai exchange fell for the third consecutive session, down 1.3% to 21,845 CNY/ton due to weak demand. On the LME, aluminum rose 0.5%, zinc increased 0.3%, while nickel, tin, and lead all slightly decreased.
Cocoa prices decrease as the outlook for the harvest season in West Africa improves.
London cocoa prices fell by 3.4% to £6,404 per ton, while New York cocoa dropped sharply by 4.5% to $9,030 per ton. Rabobank stated that recent favorable weather conditions and forecasts of continued rainfall in West Africa – the primary cocoa-growing region – are improving the outlook for the 2025/26 crop.
The road continues to decline, close to the lowest level in 4 years.
Raw sugar prices decreased by 1.1% to 16.48 cents per pound, just above the four-year low of 16.32 cents set last Friday. The main reason is attributed to an early rainy season improving the production outlook in Asia, including India, Thailand, and China.
Positive signals from the US-China negotiations on Monday.
The US-China trade talks continue for the second day in London with positive signals, focusing on the issues of export controls and rare earths – a key factor in the global technology supply chain. The US suggested it could lift restrictions on the export of chips, software, and equipment if China increases the supply of rare earths and magnets.
Negotiations took place after a call between Trump and Xi Jinping, amidst a drastic 34.5% drop in Chinese exports to the U.S. in May. Previous tariff tensions had caused significant damage to businesses and supply chains, but the U.S. stock market had recovered thanks to a tax reduction agreement reached in mid-May.
Currently, the trade gap and export controls are being narrowed; however, the U.S. still maintains restrictions on advanced AI chips from Nvidia due to national security concerns.
China's exports lost momentum in May, with exports to the United States falling by nearly 35%.
In May, China's exports slowed down and imports decreased, indicating a weak domestic economy. Exports to the United States fell sharply due to trade tensions, despite a tax reduction agreement between the two sides. At the same time, China continued to fall into deflation (CPI decreased for 4 consecutive months), reflecting weak consumption. The US and China are negotiating in London, hoping to reach an agreement on export controls, particularly on rare earths. The US may relax technology bans if China increases exports of rare earths. The Chinese economy is under pressure and may need additional government stimulus to achieve growth targets.
Elon Musk 'sent a heart' to reconcile with Mr. Trump.
Elon Musk and US President Donald Trump show signs of "cooling off" tensions after a series of heated disputes. Musk responded to a video of Trump with a heart emoji, which is seen as a soothing gesture. Previously, they had attacked each other over spending cut bills and electric vehicle incentives, with Musk even suggesting a connection between Trump and Jeffrey Epstein, causing serious controversy. Although the relationship remains fragile, observers believe that the situation could change depending on the upcoming political developments.
Source: SFVN Compilation
