Wheat prices have decreased due to pressure from the harvest season, while soybean prices remain stable.
Chicago wheat prices fell for the second consecutive session due to pressure from the harvest season in the Northern Hemisphere and forecasts of increased production from Russia. Meanwhile, soybean prices rose slightly on expectations of trade negotiations between China and the US, two countries that have a significant impact on the global soybean market.
Wheat market
The futures price of wheat has fallen below $5.37 per bushel, cooling from a two-month high of $5.55 per bushel set on June 6, as improved growing conditions in the U.S. have helped ease supply concerns.
Winter wheat – which was assessed as the second worst crop in history last fall – is currently rated 54% good to very good, the highest early June rating since 2019. This strong improvement, thanks to favorable weather conditions, is supporting positive export prospects for the U.S., which have reached the highest level in 12 years at this time of the season. Specifically, exports of hard red winter wheat are at their highest in 17 years.
However, the harvesting progress remains slow, with only 4% completed due to prolonged heavy rains in key states such as Oklahoma and Kansas. Continuous wet weather can slow down the harvesting pace and reduce grain quality.
Meanwhile, U.S. spring wheat is also improving significantly, with 53% of the area rated good to excellent – a major improvement compared to the weak start of the season. Although the planted area is at a historically low level, favorable weather conditions could help increase production. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) may slightly raise its harvest yield forecast, which is currently near the highest level in nine years.
Corn Market
Corn prices rebounded slightly in the middle of the week thanks to an increase in the spot market and active deliveries of the old crop. The new crop corn futures in the U.S. (code CZ) surpassed $4.40 per bushel, but still face downward pressure if favorable weather continues. In Brazil, the second-largest corn harvest in history is expected to reach about 5 billion bushels due to high yields, despite the planting area not expanding much. However, strong domestic demand for livestock feed and ethanol production could reduce corn export volumes. In Asia, South Korea has opened a tender to purchase a large amount of corn for feed through two organizations, NOFI and KFA.
Soybean Market
Soybean prices rose slightly as negotiations between China – the world's largest soybean importer – and the United States – the second-largest exporter – began to resolve trade disputes affecting the agricultural sector. Specifically, soybean contracts increased by 0.5% to $10.61-1/4 per bushel. The USDA also reported that 68% of the acreage is rated from good to very good, representing a slight improvement from the previous week and in line with market expectations.
The price of old crop soybeans remains high due to strong CIF prices, strong exports from Brazil, and limited selling by U.S. farmers. However, the price of the new crop soybeans is still constrained by favorable weather conditions in the U.S. and a lack of new demand factors. Analysts believe that the market is no longer oversold, but if there are no weather risks, the upward momentum in prices will be limited.
Coffee Market
Robusta coffee prices on the ICE exchange fell sharply due to favorable harvesting progress in Brazil and Indonesia, which has increased the supply to the market. The July futures contract for Robusta coffee dropped by 134 USD, equivalent to 3%, to 4,317 USD/ton – close to the lowest level in 9.5 months at 4,235 USD set last week.
According to traders, Brazilian farmers have intensified their sales of robusta coffee due to a good harvest. At the same time, the market is also absorbing additional new supplies from Indonesia. The price of Arabica coffee futures fell by 1.8% to $3.5305 per pound.
The largest coffee cooperative in Brazil - Cooxupe - reported that as of June 6, farmers have harvested 13.7% of the expected output for the 2025 season, up from 10.1% the previous week and on par with the same period last year (13.6%).
Source: SFVN Compilation
